GGPOKER

The hand played between "Jungleman" Dan Cates and Mariano set the poker world ablaze this summer. Almost everyone has their own take on this hand, eager to share their interpretations.

This hand took place at the Hustler high-stakes cash game table with blinds of $400-$800, a $800 big blind ante, and effective stacks of approximately $150,000.

Today, let’s break down this hand.

Pre-Flop

Blinds: $400-$800, with an $800 big blind ante.

Pre-flop, "Jungleman" in the Hijack (HJ) position raises to $2,600 with K♥Q♥. Mariano, in the Cutoff (CO) with A♥A♣, 3-bets to $8,600. Jungleman calls.

=== Analysis ===

Both players played this street correctly.

With the big blind ante, the opening range from the HJ can widen to about the top 25% of hands, and KQs is comfortably within that range.

As for Mariano, his 3-bet range can be around the top 10-15% of hands, and AA is obviously a must-raise.

Facing a 3-bet, Jungleman’s calling range should look something like this:

• Small pocket pairs (mixed frequency, ~50%)
• 99 and TT (100% frequency)
• Suited broadway hands (occasionally used for 4-betting)

As for his 4-bet range, it’s limited to premium hands like QQ+.

Flop

Flop: Q♣J♥4♥. Pot: $19,200. Jungleman checks, Mariano bets $13,000, and Jungleman calls.GGpoker

=== Analysis ===

The flop is action-packed: Mariano has an overpair, while Jungleman has top pair with the second-nut flush draw.

As the pre-flop caller and in a disadvantaged position, Jungleman should check his entire range. His range includes a significant portion of bottom pairs (or pocket pairs), and he lacks overpairs, so his range is far behind Mariano’s.

Despite the 200bb effective stack depth, Mariano shouldn’t bet too large here. He should use his entire range to make a small bet (20-40% of the pot). This is because his range has a significant advantage, forcing Jungleman to fold many hands (from a pot odds perspective, Jungleman’s fold frequency would be too high).

If Mariano bets too large, it signals that his range might be even stronger than expected.

Facing a $13,000 bet, Jungleman is definitely continuing with top pair and a flush draw. The question is whether to call or raise.

Raising isn’t a bad play—it could fold out hands with decent equity—but with Mariano’s sizable bet (~67% of the pot), his range appears strong. Considering KQs’s pot equity (48% against AA) and its playability, calling is the better option here.

Turn

Turn: Q♣J♥4♥2♠. Pot: $45,200. Jungleman checks, Mariano bets $40,000, and Jungleman calls.

=== Analysis ===

The turn is a blank, and Mariano can comfortably continue betting for value. His hand and overall range remain strong, and neither flush draws nor straight draws have completed.

It’s worth noting that flush draws are present in both players’ ranges, but Jungleman’s range contains more of them.

Jungleman’s check is correct, for the same reasons as on the flop.

Mariano should continue betting for value. His AA is still well ahead of Jungleman’s range, and a large bet like $40,000 is appropriate. However, betting larger than this would reduce value, as Jungleman wouldn’t call with hands worse than AA. A $40,000 bet is callable by weaker hands.

This $40,000 bet also sets up a potential river shove. Theoretically, this betting size maximizes the proportion of hands in Mariano’s range that can win the pot—a concept known as geometric betting.

Facing Mariano’s bet, Jungleman isn’t folding KQs. His hand has high equity and implied odds, so the question is whether to shove or call. He needs to consider whether shoving has higher expected value (EV) than calling. The answer is no.

Shoving would only have higher EV if Mariano would fold hands stronger than KQ while calling with hands weaker than KQ. That’s unlikely in this case—Mariano would likely be happy to call a shove with his overpair or even AQ.

River

River: Q♣J♥4♥2♠8♥. Pot: $125,200. Jungleman checks, Mariano shoves for $85,300, and Jungleman calls, winning the $295,800 pot.

=== Analysis ===

The river completes a potential flush draw, which observant players would notice.

While Jungleman’s range contains more flushes than Mariano’s, their ranges’ EVs are quite close overall, as Mariano’s range includes many two-pair-or-better hands.

Jungleman should continue checking his entire range, as the river doesn’t significantly improve his range.

For Mariano, the EV of checking versus shoving is close. His A♥ acts as a blocker to many of Jungleman’s potential flush hands (e.g., AQ, AJ, AT, or A5).

Thus, Jungleman’s flush holdings are narrowed to a small portion of hands like KQ, QT, or perhaps 6♥5♥. Whether to shove for thin value depends on how likely Jungleman is to call with hands like top pair. The more likely Jungleman is to call with such hands, the more Mariano should shove with AA, and vice versa.

This is where opinions differ.

After this hand aired, many criticized Mariano’s play, but players like Doug Polk argued that against a seasoned player like Jungleman, Mariano’s play was correct—or at least GTO solver-approved.

After Mariano’s shove, Jungleman easily calls, as his hand is second only to the nut flush.

Do you think Jungleman would call a river shove with top pair?

This question is the crux of the river analysis. If Jungleman would call, the shove is a brilliant play; if not, the shove has negative EV.