GGPOKER

This hand comes from a $1/$3 cash game with $300 effective stacks. Our Hero raised to $12 from early position with A♠ A♦, which is a very good open. The HJ, CO, button, and big blind players all called.

The flop came J♠ J♣ 6♦, and the big blind checked.

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Our Hero bet $40 into the $60 pot.

While this value bet may seem reasonable, it’s actually a significant mistake because many Jx hands are in the opponents’ ranges. Although AA might currently be the best hand, unless the opponents are extreme calling stations, almost no worse hands will call a $40 bet. Instead, Hero should check, looking to check-call (if one player bets and others fold) or even check-fold (if there’s a bet and a call or raise). It’s crucial to recognize that when someone calls or raises a bet in a multi-way pot on a paired board, they almost always have a very strong hand. Of course, the original bettor could also have a strong hand. This is a spot where Hero faces extreme reverse implied odds—meaning he either wins a small pot or loses a big one. Often, it’s best to avoid such situations.

This time, the CO player called Hero’s $40 flop bet, and the others folded. The turn was the 5♦. Hero bet $80 into the $140 pot.

This was another major mistake. Hero commented that he "knew" opponents would always raise trips on the flop, so AA must still be the best hand. The problem with this reasoning is that Hero has almost no real insight into how his opponent will play trips against a large flop bet. Just because you would raise with trips doesn’t mean your opponent will. Additionally, from a GTO perspective, opponents have an incentive to call more and rarely raise on this type of flop when facing a large bet.GGPoker Hero had no real justification for removing trips from the opponent’s range. A turn check with the intention of check-calling would have been better, though it’s still a tough spot.

The CO player called Hero’s $80 turn bet. The river was the 2♠, and Hero shoved his remaining $168 into the $300 pot.

This was another mistake, though perhaps less severe than the previous ones. If the CO happened to have a hand like TT, he might call the shove, but if Hero checked, the CO might check back. Since the CO’s range likely contains few bluffs, there’s at least some merit in going for thin value. That said, if Hero was now certain the CO mostly had trips (which was likely the case), check-folding would probably have been the best play. The CO called with JTo and stacked Hero. Hero considered this a bad beat, but in reality, he played the hand very poorly. Instead, he should have checked the flop. Most likely, the CO would have bet. If others called, Hero could immediately fold, or call the flop and then check-fold the turn to escape the trap. Even if everyone folded to the CO’s flop bet, Hero would have been happier check-calling, as the CO’s range includes many potential bluffs that might fire again on the turn. By betting, Hero essentially forced the CO to have a hand better than AA—a mistake that makes it very hard for Hero to profit in poker.