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Understanding Expected Return on Investment (ROI) and Win Rate in Heads-Up Poker

Posted on August 18, 2025
Understanding Expected Return on Investment (ROI) and Win Rate in Heads-Up Poker

Poker isn’t just about playing cards and hoping for the best—it’s also a game of math.

If you're a poker player considering making a living from the game, you need to think more deeply about what constitutes a good win rate and how high your expected return on investment (ROI) can realistically be based on the stakes you play. Asking these questions is a great way to learn from other players’ experiences and benchmark your own performance. Understanding these metrics can help you decide whether it’s time to move up in stakes, take on higher risk, or if you still need to refine certain aspects of your game. Since there are many poker formats, the estimated win rates and ROIs discussed here are based on **heads-up Sit & Go (SNG) games.**GGPoker For serious heads-up SNG players, an ideal ROI typically falls between **5% to 20%** to be considered worthwhile. However, if you're playing mid-to-high stakes (around the $30 buy-in range), you should aim for an ROI of **15% to 20%**. This essentially means you’d earn roughly **$6 per game**, making your time investment profitable.

At higher stakes, where competition is tougher, your overall ROI will naturally decline.

For example, mid-stakes players might see a steady ROI of around **10%**, with **15%** being considered excellent. At the highest levels, expectations drop further—top-tier players often average an ROI of just **5% to 7%** due to the increased skill level of opponents. As for **win rates**, if you're a heads-up cash game player, a standard benchmark is winning **10 to 20 big blinds (BB) per 100 hands**. Keep in mind that win rates can vary **much more widely than ROI**—sometimes dramatically—since they heavily depend on your opponents’ skill levels. These numbers are just general guidelines, so adjust your expectations based on your specific game conditions.